Resources to Help You Avoid Past Mistakes

Somebody once said, "Every time history repeats itself the price goes up." If companies are aware of past experiences, they can save themselves from the expense of repeating mistakes.

One way to avoid past mistakes is to pay attention to historical information when developing your risk plans. Two sources of historical information are especially helpful in meeting this objective: past project files and published information.

Past project files
There are three types of project files that you can use to examine historical data: previous project documentation; the lessons-learned report; and the risk response plan.

You can find previous project documentation in the form of outputs from other planning processes. However, you should limit your search to documentation generated from similar projects.

Another good resource for identifying risks and avoiding past mistakes is the lessons-learned report. This document includes lessons learned from past projects, a description of the problems encountered along with the solutions to these problems.

The risk response plan file contains information on the processes put in place to monitor, review, and update the project risk. An examination of these risks will show that some risks are greater at specific stages of the project.

Published information
Other valuable sources of historical information are available in the form of published information. Published information which may give insights into past mistakes includes:

• Commercial databases - Commercial databases are sources that you can access to obtain professionally compiled information. A common example of historical information that commercial databases can provide you with is statistics.
• Academic studies - Academic studies may focus on risk factors of projects similar to the one you are managing. A great deal of time and research often goes into academic studies. You can benefit greatly from exploring this information source when developing your risk plan.
• Benchmarking report - Benchmarking involves an examination of your competitors' business practices or products. A benchmark report could give you insight into how other companies carried out similar projects and handled risks.

When researching the possible risks for a project, you can use historical information, gathered internally or externally, to avoid past mistakes.

Past projects completed within your company can provide a gold mine of lessons learned. But you can also look outside the company at how other companies and organizations have dealt with similar projects and their associated risks.

Historical information can provide you with important insights into the risks for the projects you are currently managing. If you have researched pertinent historical information, you will be able to deal with project risks more effectively.

Historical Information Sources for Cost Estimating

Have you ever made an important project decision based on a similar situation in the past? Historical information and estimating publications are important inputs to cost estimating because they serve as benchmarks.

In project management, historical information is information about previous projects that can be used to help with a current project. Four sources of historical information a project management team can use for cost-estimating purposes are discussed below.

1. Project files
In all likelihood, your current projects are not that different from projects your company has done in the past. Each of these finalized projects should have a file, whether it is a "hard copy" file in a cabinet somewhere, or an electronic file.

You should consider both similarities and differences between past and current projects when consulting closed-out project files. One way to do this is to carefully compare the project scope statements.

An essential part of project management is keeping complete files of all planning inputs, work results, performance reports, and correspondence. If external organizations also worked on a project, you could obtain copies of their records for the project as well.

The documents most relevant to cost estimating are previous cost estimates, budgets, reports on cost performance that include actual costs, and documents that show the rationale behind revised cost estimates and budget changes.

Knowing how useful project files are to future projects should motivate you to keep every output your project management process generates. For example, you could implement a system for document retention within your project team, make sure that all stakeholders know that you want to keep all documentation in a central project file, set up a shared directory on your company's computer network where documents can be stored and backed up, and keep records of the reasons for cost variances, even when it causes embarrassment for the cost estimators.

2. Project team knowledge
The knowledge of your project team members is another form of historical information. Employees with experience and maturity are a great asset when it comes to cost estimating. They can draw on their experiences when cost estimating, since they likely will recall cost information about the various projects on which they have worked.

3. Commercial cost-estimating databases
Commercial databases are another source of historical information from which you can obtain cost information about previous projects. Publicly-owned corporations are required to make such information available. Other companies charge fees for access to databases that compile this information.

If you find a number of projects similar to yours in a database, compare them to your project and make adjustments for differences. You should be able to arrive at fairly accurate cost estimates for your project. Remember that certain factors, such as inflation, need to be considered when basing current cost estimates on former projects.

4. Estimating publications
Estimating publications are similar to commercial databases, as they contain commercially available analyses of raw data that can be used to prepare estimates. These publications help team members who are preparing cost estimates customize general information to their specific project. This streamlines the cost estimating process and increases efficiency.

Estimating publications can include such resources as computer software programs, industry-specific case studies, and periodical articles. These resources can provide you with useful project data in a reasonably short amount of time.

Of the four sources discussed above, project files contain the most reliable cost information. Project team recollections are useful, but they are generally far less reliable than documented results. Historical information and estimating publications are a great starting point for cost estimating. Remember to use the cost estimates that were proven accurate so you can avoid making the same errors again.

The Sources and Uses of Project Historical Data

There is an old adage that history repeats itself. The negative connotation to this is that humans tend to make the same mistakes over and over again. Despite this tendency, people can learn from studying history.

Like world history, historical information from past projects provides you with the opportunity to benefit from past successes while avoiding past failures.

Past projects provide you with inputs for your current project, telling you what people, equipment, and materials were needed for which tasks. Project historical data also tells you which practices and procedures were effective and which were not.

Analyzing project historical data is made easier when you keep a project notebook. A project notebook holds data records in the form of various reports. These reports include:

• project plans
• status reports
• budget reports
• resource and supplier QA and performance reports
• project logs (issues and problems).

Previous project plans can give you ideas for how you can approach your project. You can see how tasks were accomplished, what methods were deployed, and what type of resources were used.
Status reports indicate how well the resources that were used functioned while budget reports provide information about the cost of potential suppliers and contractors, which can help you estimate the cost of future projects.

Quality assurance reports give information on the quality level of the resources used on a project. The same type of information regarding suppliers is found in supplier performance reports.

Project logs reveal past issues and problems. You can apply these "lessons learned" to your current project.

Consider the example of an international telecommunications project. A similar project estimated the timelines for various stages of a project in its project plans. The actual timelines were recorded in the status reports. Reasons for the discrepancy between the two were recorded in the project logs. The budget report stated the costs, and an analysis of the project flow was included in the resource and supplier performance reports.

The paper trail left from previous projects helps you estimate costs, choose suppliers, estimate timelines, and see different approaches to a project. As such, it is your guidepost to the success of your current project.

Documenting Lessons Learned

Each new project provides a unique opportunity to learn something new and then apply it to improve the planning and execution of future projects. The body of the knowledge gained while working on a project is sometimes referred to as "lessons learned."

Some of the most common lessons learned from the schedule control process are:

• the causes of variance
• the reasons a particular corrective action was chosen
• the new processes that were implemented
• the issues with internal or external sources
• the successes or failures measured

Because lessons learned are helpful in planning future projects, care should be taken to document these lessons and make them available to future project teams. Consider the following example.

A company's planned launch of the space shuttle was set for April 1st. During the pre-launch servicing stage, workers inspected and tested the Orbiter wiring. During the testing a system malfunction occurred. Upon examination, the team discovered a short circuit in the wiring, which caused the malfunction. A complete system rewiring would be required. This procedure could significantly delay the project, since the wiring would have to be ordered from a specialty supplier in Europe.

The project team and shuttle crew met to discuss this dilemma. The team decided to increase the number of project workers. This would allow the rewiring to be completed while continuing with the remaining pre-launch servicing and testing. The target launch date could still be met.

The need for complete system rewiring and ordering the wires from an outside supplier was what caused the project to fall behind schedule. Therefore, the detection of the cause for the schedule variance was one of the lessons learned by the shuttle team.

Another lesson that can be recorded in the historical database is the approved corrective action. Adding more resources was positive and ensured the successful completion of the project. The target date was achieved.

A toy manufacturing company has just designed and developed a prototype of a new infant toy. The toy is to be launched at the International Toy Fair in two months. In order to prepare, the company needs to produce 2,000 prototypes, which will be available for sale at the fair. The project is running on schedule. However, during the testing phase, the company discovers a flaw that could cause the toys to malfunction. With only three weeks to go, the company cannot possibly start from scratch and reassemble 2000 toys.

Closer examination reveals that fixing the problem simply involves ordering a different part and replacing it. This will take at least one month, working solely with the current team. Management's only option at this time is to add project personnel, allowing the project to be finished in time for the toy fair.

A lesson learned, in this situation, is the discovery of the variance from plan. The manufacturing flaw resulted in the need to order and replace a fundamental part of the toy. This unanticipated problem has the potential to significantly delay the project's completion.

Another lesson learned is the reason for the corrective action chosen. Increasing man-hours by adding project personnel is the only viable option for the toy manufacturer, given the time crunch.

Once a project team has identified the lessons learned through the schedule control process, there are a number of succeeding steps that should be implemented to ensure the information is not lost.

• Step 1: Record lessons learned - Information should be recorded and stored in a way that permits team members to easily identify any applicable lessons learned. This information is invaluable when planning projects and processes.
  
  
• Step 2: Analyze information - Lessons learned should be analyzed to assess improvements, or identify valuable or detrimental project trends. The analysis should focus on improvement efforts.
  
  
• Step 3: Measure effectiveness - Lessons learned programs should include a means for measuring project effectiveness. The purpose of measuring effectiveness is to determine if information is being disseminated and past lessons are being incorporated.
  
  
• Step 4: Review and validate information - Lessons learned should be reviewed and validated for appropriate personnel to determine accuracy and applicability.
  
  
• Step 5: Disseminate information - Information about lessons learned should be disseminated to all project team members as well as key stakeholders. Information dissemination may be accomplished through a variety of vehicles, the most common being written documentation or through meetings or workshops.
  
  
• Step 6: Archive irrelevant information - Information that no longer has relevance to organizational activities should be archived or eliminated. Archiving is often the preferred choice, as currently irrelevant data may have inherent value in future project planning.
  
  
• Step 7: Obtain feedback from stakeholders - Feedback from key stakeholders and users can assist saving time or money, preventing a recurrence of a problem, or improving project design or processes.

To ensure project quality, you will want to use the new insights and processes that result from lessons learned. To benefit from this practice, lessons learned must be well documented and reviewed occasionally to determine if past lessons are being realized and integrated into project planning and ongoing development.

Historical Information and Project Activities

Historical information is an invaluable input to project activity duration estimating. As a project manager, you can use historical information, in the form of past project data, to make estimates on current similar projects.

For example, on a past project, John's company, Quick-as-a-Wink Computer Consultants, took five days to complete the audio for a two-hour software project. Based on this previous experience, John estimates it will also take five days for audio on the current two-hour software project.

There are many sources of historical information available to a project manager. You can start by checking the following three sources.

1. Project files
Past project files provide a fountain of information for project managers. A company may maintain records of previous project results that are detailed enough to aid in developing future duration estimates.

For example, John needs to know how long it will take to install a hub for a computer network system. John remembers installing a similar hub on a previous project. By retrieving the previous project files, John is able to find the information he needs. Since the first hub took 11 days to install, John will plan for 11 days on the current hub installation project.

2. Commercial duration estimating databases
Historical information is also available commercially through databases. These databases tend to be extremely useful when the activity duration is not driven by the actual work content.

For example, John needs to determine how long it takes a government agency to respond to a request for a license. John can contact a commercial duration estimating database company, which keeps information of this type on file. For a fee, the company will sell the information to John.

3. Project team knowledge
Another source for historical information is individual project team members who have worked on a similar project in the past. They can sometimes provide estimates of how long it took to complete the previous activity.

Remember, historical information can be a powerful tool for project managers. Don't be condemned to repeat the past. Instead, learn from it by using historical information.

Conditions for Using a Network Diagramming Template

Think about building a house when all the pieces are already prepared. You're only responsible for assembling the parts and making minor adjustments. Once you build the first house, you can use the pattern to build others.

Network diagram templates, like prefabricated houses, are standardized, pre-built components. They allow you to use successful past projects as models for the current project and schedule planning activities. Using network diagram templates helps you improve the accuracy of activity sequencing by highlighting successful practices from past projects.

Network diagram templates help you complete your work more quickly because much of the work has already been done for you. Using the successful elements from past projects also saves money on the overall current project.

Finding similarities between past and current projects is extremely helpful in planning and activity sequencing. It is appropriate to use network diagram templates as a tool for activity sequencing, when there are similarities between overall projects and among subprojects in larger projects.

• Similarities between projects - The first situation in which you should consider using network diagram templates as a tool for activity sequencing is when similarities between two separate projects are identified. Some similarities between projects include phases and deliverables. Effective network diagram templates cover the entire project and are especially useful when the past and current projects share a common structure.
  
  Consider the following example. Jack, the training director for a large engineering firm, is responsible for the continued development of in-house training courses. Since each training course has the same design cycle, Jack is able to use network diagram templates for activity sequencing of these internal courses.
  

• Similarities between subprojects - The second situation in which network diagram templates are useful is when there are similar features within a single project. These features are often called subprojects or subnets. Subnet templates are useful for projects where there are several identical features within the work breakdown structure. After completing a network diagram for the first subnet, you can use it as a template for other components within the same project.
  
  It is best to use subnet diagram templates with projects that have repetitive phases, such as floors in a high-rise building, clinical trials in pharmaceutical research, or program modules in a software project.
  

Network diagram templates can help you save time by reducing the duplication of effort where similarities between projects and subprojects exist. Understanding when to use diagramming templates will allow you to reach project goals more quickly an

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The Inputs to Project Activity Definition

When a project reaches the activity definition phase, certain documents or documentable items have already been established. These "inputs to activity definition" include the Work Breakdown Schedule (WBS), scope statement, historical informaiton, constraints, assumptions, and expert judgment.

• Work Breakdown Schedule (WBS)
  One of the principle inputs to activity definition is the WBS. This document defines project tasks and deliverables.
  

• scope statement
  The scope statement refers directly to project justification, project objectives, project deliverables, and project product description.
  

• historical information
  Historical information is another important input to activity definition. Consider activities required on previous, similar projects in defining current project activities. After all, if something works, why not repeat it?
  

• constraints
  Constraints are also an input to project activity definition. A constraint is anything that can limit the project management team's options.
  

• assumptions
  Assumptions are the fourth input to activity definition. For planning purposes, assumptions are factors that are considered to be true. Over the course of the project, these factors may turn out to be true or false.
  
  Assumptions always carry a degree of risk. For example, if assumptions about materials or costs are false, a project may be delayed or exceed its budget.
  

• expert judgment
  The final input to activity definition is expert judgment. Expert judgment is advice from people with specialized knowledge or training that directly relates to your project. Some sources of expert judgment are:
  

experienced employees in the organization
outside consultants
professional associations
industry watch groups.

The inputs to activity definition are an important part of any project. These documents and documentable items help the project manager and team to determine project deliverables and the tools and techniques needed to achieve the deliverables.

Historical Information and Scope Definition

Norman Cousins—writer, editor, and renowned Federalist—once said, "History is a vast early warning system."

Information from past projects can serve as an early warning system for your current project by giving you considerable insight when you're defining project scope. This type of scope definition input is referred to as historical information. Information from past projects that will be helpful in defining the current project scope includes the following.

1. Previous project documentation
You can find previous project documentation in the form of outputs from other planning processes. When collecting historical information, you should limit your search to documentation generated from similar projects.

The emphasis should be on identifying areas in which other similar projects were particularly successful. This information is easily found in the project development data that is included within a project's scope specifications.

You also should look for information that may have caused problems, such as scope omissions. This information is commonly found in the lessons learned output created during project wrap-up.

2. Personal experience
You also can gather historical information from personal experience. For example, the first working experience with a client provides insight into that client's preferences. Since you already know the client's likes and dislikes, you can apply this knowledge to your next project and make scope definition changes in advance.

You also can draw on the personal experiences of your co-workers. For example, a person who has worked on a project similar to the one for which you are defining the scope may provide you with useful information.

The lessons learned from previous projects provide early warning signs for potential project scope problems. Using historical information as an input to scope definition will result in more successful projects and happier clients.