Sources of Expert Judgment in Resource Planning

Who did you look to for advice when you were younger? Was it a parent? A relative? A teacher? Chances are you sought out someone who you felt had been through your situation before. Having lived through the situation made that person an expert on the subject.

In project management, you may find you need help in the form of expert judgment. There are various sources of expert judgment for the resource planning needs of your project. Where you go depends on what kind of information you need.

The primary sources of expert judgment in resource planning are:

• other units within the performing organization
  The first place to look for help with your resource planning needs is within other units of your company. Different departments have specialized knowledge, and they can provide you with their resource pool descriptions, work breakdown structures, and scope statements. And remember, when you use company resources, your company saves money by using skills it already pays for.
  

• consultants
  Consultants are another avenue you can look to for help with your resource planning. Consultants focus their knowledge in one specific field. When that field plays a role in your resource planning, you should seek out the person who knows the information inside and out.
  

• professional and technical associations
  Expert judgment can also be found in professional and technical associations. These associations may offer their members up-to-date industry training or provide information on the latest developments in your field. This could be useful for updating organizational policies and as a source of historical information.
  

• industry groups
  Industry groups are another source of expert judgment for resource planning. Industry groups are involved in setting industry standards and lobbying governments, and can refer you to important sources of information relating to your project.
  
  Industry group lobbying may necessitate changes to your company's organizational policies. It may also require you to upgrade staff or equipment. These actions would affect your resource pool description.
  
  Industry groups can also put you in touch with companies you are interested in doing business with, or that have similar interests. If you need specific materials or equipment, your industry group may be able to tell you who to contact. This would impact your resource pool description. It may also influence your scope statement. As you contact more people in relation to your project, you have a better idea of the possibilities.
  

Knowing where to go for expert judgment and advice means that as soon as you need information for resource planning you know where to get it. This saves time for you and your project team.

Expert Judgment and Project Activities

Project managers can use the special skills or knowledge of experts when activity duration estimating. This is known as the expert judgment process. It involves consulting with groups or individuals with specialized knowledge or training. These people can provide ideas and the probability of occurrence based on experience. There are four sources of expert judgment available to help you on your project.

• Other units or departments within the performing organization. Ideally, this is the best place to obtain expert judgment. It can be obtained at no cost to you. For example, if you need to know how long it takes to assemble an automobile, you can ask someone who works on the assembly line.

• Consultants. Consultants can be hired from outside the company to serve as experts for a project. However, this source is expensive and can cause costs to rise on a project. For example, a company that specializes in natural gas may be hired to consult on a pipeline project.

• Professional and technical associations. Professional and technical groups can provide expert judgment when the information needed is very detailed or technical. For example, if you need to know what the building code is for a residential home, you could ask the local builders association.

• Industry groups. Industry groups can offer general information. For example, if you need to know how long it takes for cement to cure, a construction group would be able to answer your question.

Once you've determine which expert or group of experts can help you during activity duration estimating, you can use three techniques to obtain the expert judgment you need.

• Interviews. Interviews can be on a one-to-one or a many-to-one basis. Interviews are conducted by asking a series of questions that will increase your knowledge of the project or a particular project activity.

• Brainstorming. Brainstorming works by getting a group to focus on a problem and then coming up with as many solutions as possible. Once the session has resulted in a number of solutions, the results can be analyzed.

• Historical data. Historical data uses the knowledge gained on a similar past project activity to obtain duration estimates for each activity associated with a current project.

While a certain technique might be appropriate in some situations, in others the same technique wouldn't give you the information you need. Interviews are best used when knowledgeable, experienced people are available at an affordable cost and specific information is needed, while brainstorming is best used when input from multiple experts is needed or when experienced people aren't available. Historical data is best used when records are accurate and both projects are similar.
There are many advantages to using the expert judgment technique for estimating activity duration. The advantages are that it:

• allows for different perspectives
• makes valuable use of prior knowledge and experience
• helps you find creative solutions
• helps you avoid re-inventing the wheel.

Expert judgment, like so many things, also has disadvantages. You have to be careful when using expert judgment, because it can be time consuming. It also can tie up experienced staff for many hours, to the detriment of other projects.
In addition, expert judgment can be costly if you have to go outside your company to hire experts. Another disadvantage is that experts may tend to downplay the fact that an activity took longer than expected on past projects.

Used wisely, though, expert judgment is a powerful and invaluable tool for estimating activity duration. It allows for different perspectives and more creative solutions. Most importantly, when you use expert judgment, your team will be less likely to re-invent the wheel.

The Inputs to Project Activity Definition

When a project reaches the activity definition phase, certain documents or documentable items have already been established. These "inputs to activity definition" include the Work Breakdown Schedule (WBS), scope statement, historical informaiton, constraints, assumptions, and expert judgment.

• Work Breakdown Schedule (WBS)
  One of the principle inputs to activity definition is the WBS. This document defines project tasks and deliverables.
  

• scope statement
  The scope statement refers directly to project justification, project objectives, project deliverables, and project product description.
  

• historical information
  Historical information is another important input to activity definition. Consider activities required on previous, similar projects in defining current project activities. After all, if something works, why not repeat it?
  

• constraints
  Constraints are also an input to project activity definition. A constraint is anything that can limit the project management team's options.
  

• assumptions
  Assumptions are the fourth input to activity definition. For planning purposes, assumptions are factors that are considered to be true. Over the course of the project, these factors may turn out to be true or false.
  
  Assumptions always carry a degree of risk. For example, if assumptions about materials or costs are false, a project may be delayed or exceed its budget.
  

• expert judgment
  The final input to activity definition is expert judgment. Expert judgment is advice from people with specialized knowledge or training that directly relates to your project. Some sources of expert judgment are:
  

experienced employees in the organization
outside consultants
professional associations
industry watch groups.

The inputs to activity definition are an important part of any project. These documents and documentable items help the project manager and team to determine project deliverables and the tools and techniques needed to achieve the deliverables.