Saturday, December 4, 2010

Discounted Cash Flows

The benefit measurement methods involve a variety of cash flow analysis techniques including discounted cash flows. Money received in the future is worth less than money received today. The reason for that is the time value of money.

If I borrowed $2,000 from you today and promised to pay it back in three years, you would expect me to pay interest in addition to the original amount borrowed. If you were a family member or a really close friend, maybe you wouldn’t, but ordinarily this is the way it works. You would have had the use of the $2,000 had you not lent it to me. If you had invested the money (does this bring back memories of your mom telling you to save your money?), you’d receive a return on it. Therefore, the future value of the $2,000 you lent me today is $2,315.25 in three years from now at 5 percent interest per year. Here’s the formula for future value calculations:
  • FV = PV(1 + i)n
In English, this formula says the future value (FV) of the investment equals the present value (PV) times (1 plus the interest rate) raised to the value of the number of time periods (n) the interest is paid. Let’s plug in the numbers:
  • FV = 2,000(1.05)3
  • FV = 2,000(1.157625)
  • FV = $2,315.25
The discounted cash flow technique compares the value of the future cash flows of the project to today’s dollars. In order to calculate discounted cash flows, you need to know the value of the investment in today’s terms, or the PV. PV is calculated as follows:
  • PV = FV / (1 + i)n
This is the reverse of the FV formula talked about earlier. So, if you ask the question, “What is $2,315.25 in three years from now worth today given a 5 percent interest rate?” you’d use the preceding formula. Let’s try it:
  • PV = $2,315.25 / (1 + .05)3
  • PV = $2,315.25 / 1.157625
  • PV = $2,000
    $2,315.25 in three years from now is worth $2,000 today.
Discounted cash flow is calculated just like this for the projects you’re comparing for selection purposes or when considering alternative ways of doing the project. Apply the PV formula to the projects you’re considering, and then compare the discounted cash flows of all the projects against each other to make a selection. Here is an example comparison of two projects using this technique:
  • Project A is expected to make $100,000 in two years.
  • Project B is expected to make $120,000 in three years.
  • If the cost of capital is 12 percent, which project should you choose?
Using the PV formula used previously, calculate each project’s worth:
  • The PV of Project A = $79,719.
  • The PV of Project B = $85,414.
Project B is the project that will return the highest investment to the company and should be chosen over Project A.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...


Tag: PM201A51. Let me share all of you about #5 Tips for Project Management Success,, I hope you enjoy it

1. Plan your day using time management techniques

As a project manager, time management skills are essential because you are dealing with a wide range of tasks that demand a quick turnaround time. Planning your day will go a long way in keeping you organized and increasing your productivity. Assist your task planning by using project management software which helps you track the work of you and your team.

If you are not very tech savvy, a simple to-do list can also be a great organizational tool. Prioritize your most important tasks by putting them at the top of the list and less important ones at the bottom. Having a visual plan of your daily tasks helps to keep you on track and aware of time.

Related post: Free ebook 104 secrets to become a great project manager

2. Include stakeholders in important project conversations

While you will have plenty of responsibilities regarding the project, don’t neglect your clients.

Good communication is essential is keeping both parties informed of project progression, curtailing scope creep, and apprised of changing requirements. Some clients may have different expectations when it comes to communication, so make sure to establish the frequency and type of communication (like emails, phone calls, and face-to-face conversations) at the beginning of your project.

Establishing communication expectations early helps alleviate stakeholder uncertainty about communication frequency and delivery.

3. Regularly communicate with your team

Daily team communication helps keep misunderstandings and unclear requirements under control. Keeping your team informed in every step of the project is essential to project management success.

For example, a study published by Procedia Technology found that good communication skills were the cornerstone of project management. The study examined over 300 “construction project managers, architects, construction managers, engineers and quantity surveyors” and their successes and failures on various construction projects.

4. Anticipate project setbacks

Even the best-laid plans often go awry.

Remember that even with a high amount of planning and attention to detail, your project may still encounter some challenges. Pay attention to complaints from stakeholders or colleagues, and other warning signs, like a missed deadline or cost overrun, that there may be a problem.

Preventing a crisis will keep your project running smoothly, save you a lot of time, and keep you, your team, and your stakeholders confident in progressing with the project.

Unfortunately not every complication can be avoided. Crisis management skills are essential for dealing with the unexpected. Project managers need to be flexible and pragmatic. Improvise and make sharp decisions when needed.

Related post: 92 free project management templates

5. Stay focused on the details

A common problem project managers encounter is having the project aims not aligned with the organization’s objectives. A great project manager will strategize a plan for the project to lead back to the overall success of the business.

Know your project’s scope by heart and avoid wandering outside of the project’s requirements. It’s too easy to get lost in minor details and forget what your focus is, so a well-planned project scope is essential for success.

And final, you should use KPI to measure effectiveness of the project, here are full list: 76 project management KPIs



Moolamore said...

It's important to note that DCF (discounted cash flow) is often used for valuing businesses, projects, or investment opportunities. Analysts and investors use this method to compare the intrinsic value of an investment with its market price to make investment decisions.

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